Will CAO Points Drop in 2026? Trends, Predictions & Analysis

Key Takeaways:

• The Post-Pandemic Deflation: Following years of artificially inflated Leaving Certificate grades, the Department of Education has directed the SEC to continue a gradual, phased reduction of “post-marking adjustments” in 2026, meaning overall national grades will likely drop slightly.
• Will CAO Points Drop in 2026? Yes, the mathematical baseline of points is expected to decrease across the board. However, high-demand courses (like Medicine, Veterinary, and Dentistry) will remain highly competitive due to static university seat quotas.
• Medicine CAO Points 2026 Prediction: We predict standard entry for Medicine will hover between 725 and 732 combined points (Leaving Cert + HPAT), depending on the specific university.
• Computer Science Adjustments: Due to global tech sector realignments, the massive points surge seen in Computer Science courses between 2020 and 2023 has cooled. We expect a 10 to 15-point drop in standard university computing degrees.
• Control the Controllables: Do not obsess over national averages. Focus purely on your own performance and simulate your 2026 results using our Leaving Cert points tool to see exactly how close you are to your target.

Every year, as the Leaving Certificate exams conclude and the long wait for August begins, the same question dominates group chats, parent forums, and national media: “Are the CAO points going to go up or down?”

For the 2026 academic cycle, this question is more critical than ever. We are currently navigating a highly unique transition period in the Irish educational landscape. The massive grade inflation that characterized the pandemic years has forced the State Examinations Commission (SEC) and the Department of Education into a delicate balancing act. They must slowly deflate national grades back to normal historical levels without unfairly penalizing the current cohort of 2026 Leaving Cert students.

This comprehensive guide analyzes the macroeconomic factors, demographic shifts, and SEC policies that will dictate the CAO points landscape this August. We will provide specific predictions for high-stakes disciplines like Medicine, Nursing, and Computer Science, and break down exactly why a drop in national points does not necessarily mean it will be easier to get into your dream course.

1. The SEC Grading Strategy: Will CAO Points Drop in 2026?

To understand CAO points, you must understand that the points themselves are just a symptom. The root cause is the grading curve set by the SEC.

During the pandemic, the introduction of Calculated Grades and subsequent “post-marking adjustments” caused a massive surge in H1s and H2s. This grade inflation pushed the CAO points for many standard courses to record, unsustainable highs, resulting in universities using random selection lotteries just to distinguish between thousands of students who all scored over 550 points.

The 2026 Deflation Policy:

The Minister for Education has explicitly stated that the Irish system must return to pre-pandemic grading norms. However, to avoid a “cliff edge” for current students, this deflation is happening in a phased, multi-year approach.

For 2026, the SEC will apply a lighter post-marking adjustment than they did in previous years.

What this means for CAO Points:

Mathematically, yes—CAO points will drop in 2026. Because fewer H1s and H2s will be awarded nationally, the overall purchasing power of the student body will decrease.

• If a Level 8 Arts degree required 340 points last year, it will likely drop to 325 or 330 points in 2026.
• If a General Engineering degree required 480 points, it may drop to 465.

However, a drop in points does not mean the course is suddenly “easier” to get into. If the course points drop by 15 points, but your own Leaving Cert results also drop by 15 points due to the harsher grading curve, your relative position in the queue remains exactly the same.

2. Medicine CAO Points 2026 Prediction

Medicine remains the most ruthlessly competitive undergraduate course in the Republic of Ireland. Unlike standard degrees, Medicine points are calculated using a combined score: your Leaving Certificate points (capped at an adjusted 600) plus your HPAT-Ireland score.

Because the HPAT acts as a massive equalizer, Medicine points are largely immune to the wild fluctuations seen in standard CAO courses.

The 2026 HPAT Factor:

In recent years, we have seen a slight decrease in the number of students achieving exceptionally high HPAT scores (190+), which has slightly softened the combined entry requirements. However, the sheer volume of applicants ensures the floor remains incredibly high.

2026 Entry Predictions for Undergraduate Medicine:

University / Course	2024 / 2025 Historical Baseline	2026 Predicted Cut-Off	Trend
Trinity College Dublin (TCD)	741* points	738 points	Slight Decrease
University College Dublin (UCD)	736 points	735 points	Stable
RCSI Dublin	734 points	732 points	Slight Decrease
University of Galway	729 points	727 points	Slight Decrease
University College Cork (UCC)	732 points	730 points	Stable

(Note: An asterisk denotes random selection was used at this points threshold).

To secure a seat in Medicine in 2026, a student should aim for a minimum of 550 Leaving Certificate points coupled with an HPAT score in the 80th percentile or above. If you fall short, remember that studying Medicine in Europe via EUNICAS bypasses the CAO completely.

3. Nursing & Allied Health: Points Trends for 2026 Entry

The demand for healthcare professionals in Ireland has never been higher, prompting the government to strategically increase the number of university seats available for Nursing, Midwifery, and Pharmacy.

The Supply vs. Demand Effect:

When a university adds 50 new seats to a General Nursing degree, the points automatically drop because the algorithm has to reach further down the applicant ranking list to fill the newly expanded quota.

• General Nursing: Expect a notable drop in 2026. Courses in institutions like DCU and UCC that previously hovered around the 410-430 mark are likely to settle closer to 390-405 points.
• Pharmacy: Pharmacy remains an outlier. Due to the highly lucrative nature of the private sector and the introduction of the new 5-year integrated Master’s structure, demand is skyrocketing. Expect Pharmacy points at RCSI, UCC, and TCD to remain stubbornly high, hovering strictly between 590 and 613 points.
• Physiotherapy: Physiotherapy has historically demanded points comparable to Law or Dentistry. With very few new seats added nationally, Physiotherapy requirements across UCD, Trinity, and UL will likely remain insulated from the national points drop, requiring 560+ points.

4. The Tech Sector Correction: Computer Science Points Drop

Between 2018 and 2022, Computer Science was the fastest-growing discipline in the CAO system. Points surged year-over-year as students chased the promise of high starting salaries in Dublin’s “Silicon Docks.”

The 2026 Reality Check:

The landscape has shifted. Massive global layoffs at tech giants (Meta, Google, X, and Stripe) and the rapid rise of Generative AI have caused a slight cooling in applicant enthusiasm. Many students are pivoting slightly away from pure Computer Science and moving toward hybrid degrees (like Business Analytics or Electronic Engineering).

As a result, we predict a moderate to significant drop in Computer Science points for 2026:

• UCD Computer Science, which peaked at 544 points during the pandemic, is likely to drop closer to the 515-520 range.
• Level 8 Computing degrees at Technological Universities (like TU Dublin or MTU) may see drops of up to 20 points as the applicant pool disperses.

5. The Highest Points Courses in Ireland 2026

Regardless of SEC grading adjustments, there is an elite tier of courses in Ireland that are structurally immune to points dropping. These courses suffer from a chronic “bottleneck” effect: thousands of high-achieving students apply for a severely restricted number of seats.

If you are applying for any of the courses below, you must assume that you will need a near-perfect Leaving Certificate (consisting of multiple H1s and the Higher Level Maths bonus) to secure a Round 1 offer.

The “Untouchables” (Expected to require 580+ Points in 2026):

1. Veterinary Medicine (UCD): The sole veterinary school in the Republic of Ireland. Historically requiring 589* to 601 points. Even with the proposed opening of new vet schools in rural Ireland, the impact will not be felt in the 2026 CAO cycle.
2. Management Science and Information Systems Studies / MSISS (TCD): A highly specialized, elite corporate degree that consistently maxes out the CAO scale at 613 to 625 points.
3. Economics and Finance (UCD): The premier feeder degree for investment banking and quantitative finance in Ireland, regularly demanding 600+ points.
4. Dentistry (UCC and TCD): With microscopic class sizes, Dentistry routinely requires 613* to 625 points, forcing many capable students to study in Eastern Europe.
5. Law and French / Law and German (TCD/UCD): Dual-language corporate law degrees are heavily targeted by students seeking careers in EU institutions in Brussels, keeping points strictly above the 570 mark.

6. The 2026 Strategy: How to Prepare for Results Day

Speculating about national points trends is natural, but it can quickly become an unhealthy obsession. As an applicant, you have absolutely zero control over the SEC’s standard deviation curves or the CAO’s algorithm.

The only thing you can control is knowing exactly where you stand mathematically when results day arrives.

1. Ignore the Noise: Do not panic if you see newspaper headlines in July claiming “Points to Skyrocket.” Media outlets thrive on results-day anxiety.
2. Understand the Round 2 Safety Net: If points do remain high in Round 1 and you narrowly miss out, remember that the 2026 demographic is highly mobile. Many students will reject their CAO offers to take up apprenticeships, study in Europe, or accept UK UCAS offers. This creates a “trickle-down” effect, meaning points often drop in Round 2 (released in early September).
3. Verify Your Options: On Friday, August 21st, 2026, when your raw SEC grades appear on the portal, do not try to calculate your Best 6 subjects in your head.

A single miscalculation of your Higher Level Maths bonus or an Ordinary Level grade boundary can cause you to incorrectly believe you missed your course. When the portal opens, remain calm, check your raw grades, and simulate your 2026 results using our Leaving Cert points tool to ensure your baseline is 100% accurate before the CAO Round 1 offers drop on the following Wednesday.

If you realize that the points trend has locked you out of your desired Level 8 course, it is crucial that you immediately pivot to your contingency plan. Read our comprehensive timeline guide on CAO Offers and Timelines: Round 1 to Deferrals so you understand exactly how the Available Places facility works and how you can secure a university seat if your primary preferences fail.

Disclaimer: The points predictions and trend analyses provided in this guide are estimations based on historical CAO data, SEC policy announcements, and current demographic trends. They do not constitute official CAO cut-offs. The final points required for any course in 2026 will be determined entirely by the supply of college places and the demand/academic performance of the 2026 applicant cohort. Always refer to cao.ie for official statistics.